Presidential Approval Polling Dashboard

Weighted Polling Average

An updating polling average accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology quality, population type, partisan lean, and pollster house effects. Shaded region shows where 90% of polls are expected to fall.

Weighted Net Approval Approve − Disapprove

Model Transparency How the weights work

Recency

14-day half-life exponential decay. A poll from 2 weeks ago counts 50%.

Sample Size

Weight scales with √n. A 4,000-person poll counts ~2.6× more than a 600-person poll.

Methodology

Probability-based polling: 100%. Mixed methods: 85%. Nonprobability panels: 70%. Unknown: 65%.

Population

Likely voters: 100%. Registered voters: 95%. All adults: 80%.

Partisan Lean

Party-sponsored polls (REP/DEM) receive 50% weight.

House Effects

Each pollster's systematic bias is estimated and corrected using an iterative algorithm with Bayesian shrinkage.

Estimated House Effects Pollster bias

How much each pollster deviates from the consensus. Positive = more favourable to Trump. Values are adjusted for approve and disapprove independently, with shrinkage toward zero for pollsters with few polls.

Average by Population Type

Polls by Methodology

Average Approval by Pollster Top 15

Sample Size vs. Net Approval

Monthly Average Approve / Disapprove

Event Analysis: Iran Strikes Comparing 30 days before vs. after Feb 28, 2026 — non-partisan polls only

Pre-Iran — Net Approval

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Post-Iran — Net Approval

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Same-Pollster Shift Controls for pollster lean

Only pollsters with data both before and after the event. This eliminates composition effects from different pollsters being active in different periods.

By Population Type Non-partisan

Zoomed Trend Jan–Mar 2026

Poll Data

Date	Pollster	Sponsor	Pop.	Sample	Approve	Disapprove	Net	Methodology